Alan Gayle is a sales and marketing consultant specialising in the construction industry. In this column he offers advice on how to make an impact in the market. This time he looks at forecasting.

Following the last three articles about upselling and diversification, this month I had intended to write about another closely related subject – strategic alliances. However, four important construction industry forecasts came out in April, and due to the continuing difficult economic climate and the daily doom and gloom reports about the construction industry in the mainstream media, I thought I’d look at the whole issue of forecasts and what the stone sector can expect in the coming years. So ‘strategic alliances’ will have to wait until next month.

The trouble with forecasts is there are so many out there. Each has it own data source and sometimes the forecasts reach contradictory conclusions. When there’s so much information, who do you believe?

Experian, Hewes & Associates, Leading Edge and the Construction Products Association all produce highly regarded forecasts for the construction industry and while they agree on some things, they disagree on a lot more.

To preserve my sanity, I only follow one: The Construction Products Association (CPA) industry forecast. That’s not to say the others aren’t good – they are – but the CPA forecast has served me well over the years and with industry-leading members such as Rockwool, Travis Perkins and Marshalls contributing to the results… well, if it’s good enough for them it’s good enough for me.

You don’t have to be a member of the CPA to gain access to their forecasts. You can buy single copies of Construction Market trends for £30 or subscribe annually for £200. They also have other statistical publications ghat you can find out about on their website www.constructionproducts.org.uk

I’m not going to analyse the data in their latest report because I’m no economist and if you are interested you can easily obtain the report for yourself. Still, last month’s forecast really explained a lot to me.

The headline was typically depressing: ‘Construction Output Set to Fall for Next Two Years’. But when you look a bit deeper it becomes clear that different sectors of the industry can expect completely different fortunes.

The CPA predicts that the value of public sector construction work will fall by £11billion by 2015. No surprise there then. But did you know that, according to the CPA, the value of private sector construction work is set to increase by £15billion over the same period?

The CPA makes specific reference to the growth in commercial offices and retail, two markets where natural stone products are often specified.

If your main market is the public sector, you’re probably in for a rough ride over the next few years as central and local government reduce their spending. But if you supply the private commercial sector, maybe things aren’t as bad as the headline suggests. No wonder stone companies have started investing in plant and machinery again to increase their capacity.

Of course, no-one can predict the future with 100% certainty, but if your business isn’t planning for growth in the private commercial sector, maybe now is a good time to start planning for it.

Meanwhile, normal service will be resumed next month when I turn to the subject of ‘strategic alliances’.

Alan Gayle is a sales and marketing consultant specialising in the construction industry. He spent 19 years with some of the UK’s leading building product manufacturers and has worked in the stone sector for the past eight years.

Alan now runs Gayle Associates, which provides a range of sales and marketing services for small and medium sized contractors and suppliers. His clients are seeking growth but the management are too busy to do it themselves and they don’t want the commitment of a full-time employee.